Adverse weather is the primary cause of crop losses, yet traditional risk assessment techniques have relied on historical yield data alone. AIR’s probabilistic models and services explicitly capture the relationship between weather and yield to estimate losses, and have become the independent models of choice for the crop insurance industry.

Isolate the impact of weather on crop yields with AIR’s Multiple Peril Crop Insurance (MPCI) Model for the U.S

AIR’s U.S. MPCI model employs the Agricultural Weather Index™ (AWI™) to capture the effect of weather on crop yield variability to provide potential yield outcomes and associated price scenarios. The AWI is county- and crop-specific, and considers regional variations in both soil and climate. The model captures yield correlations both spatially and between crops to account for widespread weather effects, as well as correlations between crop yields and prices.

Explore our MPCI model for the U.S.

Capture the impact of extreme weather events on China’s cropland with AIR’s MPCI Model for China

The model leverages the AIR AWI and captures the severity, frequency, and locations of drought, flood, wind, and frost/freeze damage across the country. It also offers the first probabilistic approach for determining the likelihood of losses to China’s forests caused by fire, wind, and pests. The model reflects the specific policy conditions of China’s insurance programs by province and offers multiple views of crop risk, customizable premium rates, and peril and line-of-business filters.

Discover our MPCI model for China

How do I monitor my agriculture risk throughout the growing season?

The monthly CropAlert® Growing Conditions Report provides in-season yield forecasts and updates, impact assessments of adverse weather, program and policy analyses, loss estimates, and more.

Read more about CropAlert

Crop industry’s first model to estimate losses to crop hail and production plan policies in the U.S.

The model is the industry’s first probabilistic model to capture the effects of hail on insured crops. The model leverages the same high-resolution hail event catalog used in AIR’s U.S. severe thunderstorm model. Crop damage is simulated by incorporating hail damage factors and crop-specific developmental stage information. It is the only model that provides loss estimates for two types of insurance products: Crop Hail (policies that pay when crop damage occurs from a hailstorm) and Production Plan (policies that pay when the actual yield at harvest is below a guaranteed yield).

Find out about our crop hail model for the U.S.

Introducing the Canada Crop Hail Model

AIR’s new Crop Hail Model for Canada is the industry’s first probabilistic model to capture the effects of hail on Canadian crops. Crop-specific damage functions account for the unique damage caused by hail at various plant developmental stages. The hail catalog used by AIR’s Canada severe thunderstorm model is leveraged to explicitly simulate damage to 11 major crops in Canada. The model provides loss estimates for the full range of private crop hail insurance policy options available in the Prairie Provinces as well as potential hail losses in six additional southern Canada provinces.

Find out about our crop hail model for Canada

Get a continuous view of crop hail risk across Canada and the U.S.

The U.S. and Canada crop hail and severe thunderstorm models leverage a single, unified catalog of hail activity covering the contiguous U.S. and the agricultural regions of the nine southernmost Canadian provinces. This single catalog uniquely supports a consistent and seamless view of risk across the border between the U.S. and Canada for crop and property lines of business.

Better optimize risk and enhance your fund designation strategy

AIR’s service provides designation alternatives, allowing you to choose the option that best fits your risk-return target. Utilizing the U.S. MPCI model, the service offers different allocation strategies that provide a higher expected gain for the associated level of risk based on the efficient frontier. It considers multiple factors, such as probabilities of loss, mean loss ratio, 100-year return loss ratio, and tail value at risk, to rank and sort policies.

Learn about our fund designation service


AIR Crop Insurance Symposium

Join an international audience and distinguished presenters from the insurance industry, academia, and the U.S. government at the annual AIR Crop Insurance Symposium.

“One of the better, forward looking agriculture conferences I have attended. The sessions and speakers cover many different aspects of the industry, and I look forward to attending every year. This conference offers good networking opportunities and I particularly enjoyed this year’s regional focus on the Canada market.”

Ken Doleman

Palliser Insurance, President & CEO

I am interested in AIR’s Crop Symposium!

"Based on a blind test of more than half a million crop insurance policies, AIR's allocation recommendations led to a significant improvement in return by accurately selecting the best policies to keep. This innovative tool will be an essential part of our fund designation strategy moving forward."

- Ron Rutledge

Farmers Mutual Hail Insurance Company of Iowa Chairman, President, and CEO


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